Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild southerly flow advecting warmer air masses toward Amsterdam on September 15, supporting afternoon highs in the 22–24°C range amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.3°C, driven by above-normal North Sea sea surface temperatures and limited cold-air intrusion. Model consensus remains tight on the daily maximum, but small timing differences in cloud breaks or precipitation could shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Updated runs from agencies like KNMI and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月15日のアムステルダムの最高気温は？
9月15日のアムステルダムの最高気温は？
23°C 37%
24℃ 25%
22℃ 21%
21°C 12%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
19°C以下
1%
20℃
5%
21°C
12%
22℃
21%
23°C
37%
24℃
25%
25℃
7%
26℃
3%
27°C
4%
28℃
2%
29℃以上
2%
23°C 37%
24℃ 25%
22℃ 21%
21°C 12%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
19°C以下
$39 Vol.
1%
20℃
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$8 Vol.
12%
22℃
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
37%
24℃
$0 Vol.
25%
25℃
$0 Vol.
7%
26℃
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$10 Vol.
4%
28℃
$10 Vol.
2%
29℃以上
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild southerly flow advecting warmer air masses toward Amsterdam on September 15, supporting afternoon highs in the 22–24°C range amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.3°C, driven by above-normal North Sea sea surface temperatures and limited cold-air intrusion. Model consensus remains tight on the daily maximum, but small timing differences in cloud breaks or precipitation could shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Updated runs from agencies like KNMI and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
音量
$76終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild southerly flow advecting warmer air masses toward Amsterdam on September 15, supporting afternoon highs in the 22–24°C range amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.3°C, driven by above-normal North Sea sea surface temperatures and limited cold-air intrusion. Model consensus remains tight on the daily maximum, but small timing differences in cloud breaks or precipitation could shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Updated runs from agencies like KNMI and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$76終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild southerly flow advecting warmer air masses toward Amsterdam on September 15, supporting afternoon highs in the 22–24°C range amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.3°C, driven by above-normal North Sea sea surface temperatures and limited cold-air intrusion. Model consensus remains tight on the daily maximum, but small timing differences in cloud breaks or precipitation could shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Updated runs from agencies like KNMI and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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