Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月3日のサンフランシスコの最高気温は？
9月3日のサンフランシスコの最高気温は？
70～71°F 40%
68〜69°F 28%
72〜73°F 19%
66〜67°F 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/03
61°F以下
<1%
62〜63°F
1%
64〜65°F
4%
66〜67°F
6%
68〜69°F
28%
70～71°F
40%
72〜73°F
19%
74〜75°F
3%
76〜77°F
1%
78〜79°F
<1%
華氏80度以上
<1%
70～71°F 40%
68〜69°F 28%
72〜73°F 19%
66〜67°F 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/03
61°F以下
$470 Vol.
<1%
62〜63°F
$150 Vol.
1%
64〜65°F
$207 Vol.
4%
66〜67°F
$862 Vol.
6%
68〜69°F
$1,057 Vol.
28%
70～71°F
$236 Vol.
40%
72〜73°F
$530 Vol.
19%
74〜75°F
$985 Vol.
3%
76〜77°F
$92 Vol.
1%
78〜79°F
$190 Vol.
<1%
華氏80度以上
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
音量
$5,284終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$5,284終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 AM ETRecent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight an unusually early cold front and deepened marine layer suppressing San Francisco highs on September 3 to the upper 60s °F, with a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle and persistent cloud cover. This aligns with the market's heaviest implied probability on 70-71 °F (40.5%) and 68-69 °F (28%), as traders weigh localized warming in eastern neighborhoods against official forecasts near 67-68 °F—about 2 °F below the 1991-2020 average. The storm's steering flow and timing limit afternoon clearing, keeping outcomes above 72 °F at under 20% combined while rendering sub-66 °F scenarios unlikely given current dew points and onshore flow. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift these skin-in-the-game odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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