Recent September 2026 polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats, equating to approximately 5-6% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs independently. This positioning keeps trader probabilities clustered across the 4.5-7.5% bands ahead of the October 27 election. Candidate-list submissions closed on September 8, after which surveys showed modest fluctuations tied to Arab-sector turnout expectations and alliance cohesion. Broader campaign dynamics, including opposition consolidation around Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and the Netanyahu bloc's seat losses, shape mobilization incentives that could shift Arab voter participation in the final weeks. The market reflects this uncertainty over threshold clearance and final vote distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.5%未満 38%
5.5～6.5% 29%
6.5〜7.5％ 29%
4.5～5.5％ 27%
新規
新規
2026/11/30
4.5%未満
38%
4.5～5.5％
27%
5.5～6.5%
29%
6.5〜7.5％
29%
7.5％以上
26%
4.5%未満 38%
5.5～6.5% 29%
6.5〜7.5％ 29%
4.5～5.5％ 27%
新規
新規
2026/11/30
4.5%未満
$0 Vol.
38%
4.5～5.5％
$0 Vol.
27%
5.5～6.5%
$0 Vol.
29%
6.5〜7.5％
$0 Vol.
29%
7.5％以上
$0 Vol.
26%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent September 2026 polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats, equating to approximately 5-6% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs independently. This positioning keeps trader probabilities clustered across the 4.5-7.5% bands ahead of the October 27 election. Candidate-list submissions closed on September 8, after which surveys showed modest fluctuations tied to Arab-sector turnout expectations and alliance cohesion. Broader campaign dynamics, including opposition consolidation around Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and the Netanyahu bloc's seat losses, shape mobilization incentives that could shift Arab voter participation in the final weeks. The market reflects this uncertainty over threshold clearance and final vote distribution.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent September 2026 polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats, equating to approximately 5-6% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs independently. This positioning keeps trader probabilities clustered across the 4.5-7.5% bands ahead of the October 27 election. Candidate-list submissions closed on September 8, after which surveys showed modest fluctuations tied to Arab-sector turnout expectations and alliance cohesion. Broader campaign dynamics, including opposition consolidation around Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and the Netanyahu bloc's seat losses, shape mobilization incentives that could shift Arab voter participation in the final weeks. The market reflects this uncertainty over threshold clearance and final vote distribution.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRecent September 2026 polls place the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al) at roughly 6-7 Knesset seats, equating to approximately 5-6% of the national vote, while Ra'am runs independently. This positioning keeps trader probabilities clustered across the 4.5-7.5% bands ahead of the October 27 election. Candidate-list submissions closed on September 8, after which surveys showed modest fluctuations tied to Arab-sector turnout expectations and alliance cohesion. Broader campaign dynamics, including opposition consolidation around Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and the Netanyahu bloc's seat losses, shape mobilization incentives that could shift Arab voter participation in the final weeks. The market reflects this uncertainty over threshold clearance and final vote distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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