Adama Barrow leads the 5 December 2026 Gambian presidential election market at 71.5% as the National People’s Party incumbent seeking a third term under the 1997 constitution, bolstered by his campaign launch of a nine-point manifesto in June and ongoing infrastructure initiatives. Opposition fragmentation sustains the gap, with United Democratic Party leader Ousainou Darboe at 16.5% after his party’s selection as flagbearer, while Essa Faal, Talib Ahmed Bensouda, Bakary K. Badjie, and others trail below 7% amid stalled coalition efforts. Recent power outages triggered protests and a national emergency declaration on 8–9 September, prompting Barrow’s pledges for added generation capacity by October, yet polls continue to show him ahead on perceived electability despite divided voter intentions. The election date confirmation in early September and first-past-the-post system further reinforce trader positioning ahead of nominations.