**Recent forecasts indicate a minimum temperature of 16–17°C for Paris on August 28, 2026, with moderate uncertainty driven by incoming oceanic air.** A shift from recent warmer-than-average conditions (monthly departure around +3°C) to a fresher southwesterly flow is expected, bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms (40–70% probability), and winds of 20–30 km/h. These factors limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping the dawn minimum from falling toward the climatological average low of ~13.6°C while preventing it from staying as mild as the prior week’s readings near 18–20°C. Model consensus from sources like Météo-France and international ensembles points to a low near 16–17°C, with the exact value hinging on the timing and extent of cloud breaks versus persistent overcast, wind gusts, and any localized precipitation. Stronger or more prolonged clearing could push the minimum toward 15°C or lower, while thicker cloud decks and stronger mixing would favor 18°C or above. New model runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours will be the key drivers of any shifts in trader-implied odds across the closely matched temperature thresholds.