**Recent heatwave conditions across South Korea, with Seoul/Incheon highs nearing 39°C in early August 2026, have kept overnight minima elevated, yet short-range KMA and international model guidance now point to clearer skies and modest radiative cooling for August 9.** This setup favors a daily minimum (typically recorded 3–9 AM at Incheon International Airport) in the 24–26°C range, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 24°C (38%) and 25°C (44.5%). Persistent high humidity from the summer monsoon regime limits how far temperatures can fall, while light winds and the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal systems allow the strongest cooling potential. Historical August climatology for Incheon shows average lows near 23–24°C, but the current warmer baseline—amplified by the ongoing heatwave—shifts the distribution slightly higher. Model consensus across sources (KMA short-range, AccuWeather, and yr.no) converges on 24–25°C as the most probable outcome, with only modest spread reflecting uncertainty in exact dew-point depression and boundary-layer mixing overnight. Upcoming KMA updates and any late-model revisions ahead of the 9th will likely determine whether the market tilts further toward 24°C or 25°C; traders are pricing the narrow window between these two bins as the primary resolution risk.