Virginia’s Democratic-led effort to enact a mid-decade congressional redistricting map for the 2026 midterms was halted by the state Supreme Court on May 8, 2026. The court ruled that the constitutional amendment approved by voters in April violated procedural requirements for amending the state constitution, leaving the existing maps drawn after the 2020 census in place. The U.S. Supreme Court later declined to reinstate the measure. With primaries underway and the November election approaching, no alternative legislative or judicial pathway has emerged to produce a replacement map in time. Traders assign overwhelming probability to the status quo because the court decisions directly blocked the only active process, though an unforeseen emergency ruling or last-minute legislative workaround remains theoretically possible before ballots are finalized.