In Texas's 31st congressional district, the general election matchup between twelve-term Republican incumbent John Carter and Democratic nominee Justin Early remains the central driver of market pricing on victory margins. Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, while Early advanced as the Democratic standard-bearer after the primary cycle. The district's R+11 partisan lean and Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating reflect structural advantages for the incumbent, yet the absence of recent public polling and the compressed timeline until November 3 leave room for voter turnout shifts or late-cycle national dynamics to influence the final spread. Redistricting changes implemented for 2026 and Carter's age have surfaced in campaign discourse, but fundraising and ground operations continue to favor the Republican side without evidence of a sudden competitive surge. Traders appear to price multiple margin buckets and a Democratic win option near parity because the race has not yet produced decisive polling or event-driven movement that would separate likely outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日共和党 10〜15％ 37%
共和党 30％以上 37%
共和党 25〜30％ 37%
共和党 20-25％ 37%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党 30％以上
37%
共和党 25〜30％
37%
共和党 20-25％
37%
共和党 15-20％
37%
共和党 10〜15％
37%
共和党 5〜10%
37%
共和党 0-5%
37%
民主党勝利
37%
共和党 10〜15％ 37%
共和党 30％以上 37%
共和党 25〜30％ 37%
共和党 20-25％ 37%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党 30％以上
$0 Vol.
37%
共和党 25〜30％
$0 Vol.
37%
共和党 20-25％
$0 Vol.
37%
共和党 15-20％
$0 Vol.
37%
共和党 10〜15％
$0 Vol.
37%
共和党 5〜10%
$0 Vol.
37%
共和党 0-5%
$0 Vol.
37%
民主党勝利
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 TX-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Texas's 31st congressional district, the general election matchup between twelve-term Republican incumbent John Carter and Democratic nominee Justin Early remains the central driver of market pricing on victory margins. Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, while Early advanced as the Democratic standard-bearer after the primary cycle. The district's R+11 partisan lean and Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating reflect structural advantages for the incumbent, yet the absence of recent public polling and the compressed timeline until November 3 leave room for voter turnout shifts or late-cycle national dynamics to influence the final spread. Redistricting changes implemented for 2026 and Carter's age have surfaced in campaign discourse, but fundraising and ground operations continue to favor the Republican side without evidence of a sudden competitive surge. Traders appear to price multiple margin buckets and a Democratic win option near parity because the race has not yet produced decisive polling or event-driven movement that would separate likely outcomes.
The 2026 TX-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 TX-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Texas's 31st congressional district, the general election matchup between twelve-term Republican incumbent John Carter and Democratic nominee Justin Early remains the central driver of market pricing on victory margins. Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, while Early advanced as the Democratic standard-bearer after the primary cycle. The district's R+11 partisan lean and Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating reflect structural advantages for the incumbent, yet the absence of recent public polling and the compressed timeline until November 3 leave room for voter turnout shifts or late-cycle national dynamics to influence the final spread. Redistricting changes implemented for 2026 and Carter's age have surfaced in campaign discourse, but fundraising and ground operations continue to favor the Republican side without evidence of a sudden competitive surge. Traders appear to price multiple margin buckets and a Democratic win option near parity because the race has not yet produced decisive polling or event-driven movement that would separate likely outcomes.
The 2026 TX-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Texas's 31st congressional district, the general election matchup between twelve-term Republican incumbent John Carter and Democratic nominee Justin Early remains the central driver of market pricing on victory margins. Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, while Early advanced as the Democratic standard-bearer after the primary cycle. The district's R+11 partisan lean and Cook Political Report Solid Republican rating reflect structural advantages for the incumbent, yet the absence of recent public polling and the compressed timeline until November 3 leave room for voter turnout shifts or late-cycle national dynamics to influence the final spread. Redistricting changes implemented for 2026 and Carter's age have surfaced in campaign discourse, but fundraising and ground operations continue to favor the Republican side without evidence of a sudden competitive surge. Traders appear to price multiple margin buckets and a Democratic win option near parity because the race has not yet produced decisive polling or event-driven movement that would separate likely outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問