New Mexico's Democratic tilt and Ben Ray Luján's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Luján secured renomination in the June primary with over 80 percent of the vote, while Republicans nominated Larry Marker via write-in after limited interest in the contest. The state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and recent polling shows Luján holding double-digit leads. Limited fundraising or visibility for the Republican candidate has further reinforced positioning ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unexpected national partisan shift, would be required to materially alter the current implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,709 Vol.
$18,709 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$18,709 Vol.
$18,709 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$9,612 Vol.
95%
共和党
$9,097 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.New Mexico's Democratic tilt and Ben Ray Luján's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Luján secured renomination in the June primary with over 80 percent of the vote, while Republicans nominated Larry Marker via write-in after limited interest in the contest. The state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and recent polling shows Luján holding double-digit leads. Limited fundraising or visibility for the Republican candidate has further reinforced positioning ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unexpected national partisan shift, would be required to materially alter the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$18,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.New Mexico's Democratic tilt and Ben Ray Luján's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Luján secured renomination in the June primary with over 80 percent of the vote, while Republicans nominated Larry Marker via write-in after limited interest in the contest. The state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and recent polling shows Luján holding double-digit leads. Limited fundraising or visibility for the Republican candidate has further reinforced positioning ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unexpected national partisan shift, would be required to materially alter the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$18,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Mexico's Democratic tilt and Ben Ray Luján's incumbency advantage underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Luján secured renomination in the June primary with over 80 percent of the vote, while Republicans nominated Larry Marker via write-in after limited interest in the contest. The state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and recent polling shows Luján holding double-digit leads. Limited fundraising or visibility for the Republican candidate has further reinforced positioning ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unexpected national partisan shift, would be required to materially alter the current implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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