Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with strong primary support in June 2026 and faces only a write-in Republican nominee, Larry Marker, after no major GOP candidates qualified for the ballot. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, Luján's incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure contribute to trader consensus favoring the Democrat. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain unlikely given the state's voting patterns and the challenger's constrained visibility heading into November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,109 Vol.
$17,109 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$17,109 Vol.
$17,109 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,229 Vol.
95%
共和党
$8,880 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with strong primary support in June 2026 and faces only a write-in Republican nominee, Larry Marker, after no major GOP candidates qualified for the ballot. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, Luján's incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure contribute to trader consensus favoring the Democrat. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain unlikely given the state's voting patterns and the challenger's constrained visibility heading into November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$17,109終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with strong primary support in June 2026 and faces only a write-in Republican nominee, Larry Marker, after no major GOP candidates qualified for the ballot. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, Luján's incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure contribute to trader consensus favoring the Democrat. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain unlikely given the state's voting patterns and the challenger's constrained visibility heading into November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$17,109終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with strong primary support in June 2026 and faces only a write-in Republican nominee, Larry Marker, after no major GOP candidates qualified for the ballot. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, Luján's incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure contribute to trader consensus favoring the Democrat. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or dramatic national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain unlikely given the state's voting patterns and the challenger's constrained visibility heading into November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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