Recent Pentagon reports of accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, dated April 15, have elevated risks amid the island's energy blackouts from U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil since early 2026. Cuban officials, including President Díaz-Canel on April 12, warn of "impregnable resistance" to any aggression, echoing March statements on military preparations. Yet trader consensus favors "No" clash at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting ongoing closed-door diplomacy—such as Cuba's proposed economic roadmap and U.S. pushes for leadership transitions—along with historical U.S. reluctance for invasion, over 50% public opposition to force for regime change, and competing priorities like Iran operations that could avert escalation through sustained pressure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$85,757 Vol.
$85,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$85,757 Vol.
$85,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Pentagon reports of accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, dated April 15, have elevated risks amid the island's energy blackouts from U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil since early 2026. Cuban officials, including President Díaz-Canel on April 12, warn of "impregnable resistance" to any aggression, echoing March statements on military preparations. Yet trader consensus favors "No" clash at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting ongoing closed-door diplomacy—such as Cuba's proposed economic roadmap and U.S. pushes for leadership transitions—along with historical U.S. reluctance for invasion, over 50% public opposition to force for regime change, and competing priorities like Iran operations that could avert escalation through sustained pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$85,757終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Pentagon reports of accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, dated April 15, have elevated risks amid the island's energy blackouts from U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil since early 2026. Cuban officials, including President Díaz-Canel on April 12, warn of "impregnable resistance" to any aggression, echoing March statements on military preparations. Yet trader consensus favors "No" clash at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting ongoing closed-door diplomacy—such as Cuba's proposed economic roadmap and U.S. pushes for leadership transitions—along with historical U.S. reluctance for invasion, over 50% public opposition to force for regime change, and competing priorities like Iran operations that could avert escalation through sustained pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$85,757終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Pentagon reports of accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, dated April 15, have elevated risks amid the island's energy blackouts from U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil since early 2026. Cuban officials, including President Díaz-Canel on April 12, warn of "impregnable resistance" to any aggression, echoing March statements on military preparations. Yet trader consensus favors "No" clash at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting ongoing closed-door diplomacy—such as Cuba's proposed economic roadmap and U.S. pushes for leadership transitions—along with historical U.S. reluctance for invasion, over 50% public opposition to force for regime change, and competing priorities like Iran operations that could avert escalation through sustained pressure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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