Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, buoyed by strong francophone support that aids riding efficiency, yet seat projections from aggregators place it in the low-to-mid 40s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, creating volatility in multi-party contests across the new 127-riding map. High numbers of undecided voters, ongoing concerns over healthcare, living costs, and U.S. tariffs, and the CAQ’s recent gains under Premier Christine Fréchette have kept the PQ short of majority territory in models. Shifts in francophone turnout, late campaign momentum, or further consolidation among non-PQ parties could alter the balance before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/05
34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, buoyed by strong francophone support that aids riding efficiency, yet seat projections from aggregators place it in the low-to-mid 40s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, creating volatility in multi-party contests across the new 127-riding map. High numbers of undecided voters, ongoing concerns over healthcare, living costs, and U.S. tariffs, and the CAQ’s recent gains under Premier Christine Fréchette have kept the PQ short of majority territory in models. Shifts in francophone turnout, late campaign momentum, or further consolidation among non-PQ parties could alter the balance before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
音量
$71終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, buoyed by strong francophone support that aids riding efficiency, yet seat projections from aggregators place it in the low-to-mid 40s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, creating volatility in multi-party contests across the new 127-riding map. High numbers of undecided voters, ongoing concerns over healthcare, living costs, and U.S. tariffs, and the CAQ’s recent gains under Premier Christine Fréchette have kept the PQ short of majority territory in models. Shifts in francophone turnout, late campaign momentum, or further consolidation among non-PQ parties could alter the balance before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
音量
$71終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETRecent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, buoyed by strong francophone support that aids riding efficiency, yet seat projections from aggregators place it in the low-to-mid 40s—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The federalist vote remains split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, creating volatility in multi-party contests across the new 127-riding map. High numbers of undecided voters, ongoing concerns over healthcare, living costs, and U.S. tariffs, and the CAQ’s recent gains under Premier Christine Fréchette have kept the PQ short of majority territory in models. Shifts in francophone turnout, late campaign momentum, or further consolidation among non-PQ parties could alter the balance before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問