Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 17-18 pause, as recent data underscores persistent inflationary pressures and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs. FOMC minutes released April 8 revealed officials' upward revisions to 2026 inflation outlooks and openness to potential hikes, pricing out near-term cuts and bolstering hold expectations ahead of the imminent April policy review.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 88%
동결–동결–인하 9%
기타 1.1%
멈춤–인하–멈춤 <1%
$903,550 거래량
$903,550 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
88%
동결–동결–인하
9%
기타
1%
멈춤–인하–멈춤
<1%
동결–인하–인하
<1%
동결–동결–동결 88%
동결–동결–인하 9%
기타 1.1%
멈춤–인하–멈춤 <1%
$903,550 거래량
$903,550 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
$29,921 거래량
88%
동결–동결–인하
$15,046 거래량
9%
기타
$216,481 거래량
1%
멈춤–인하–멈춤
$132,349 거래량
<1%
동결–인하–인하
$509,754 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 17-18 pause, as recent data underscores persistent inflationary pressures and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs. FOMC minutes released April 8 revealed officials' upward revisions to 2026 inflation outlooks and openness to potential hikes, pricing out near-term cuts and bolstering hold expectations ahead of the imminent April policy review.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$903,550종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 17-18 pause, as recent data underscores persistent inflationary pressures and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs. FOMC minutes released April 8 revealed officials' upward revisions to 2026 inflation outlooks and openness to potential hikes, pricing out near-term cuts and bolstering hold expectations ahead of the imminent April policy review.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$903,550종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the April 28-29 and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, following the March 17-18 pause, as recent data underscores persistent inflationary pressures and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid war-related oil shocks, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs. FOMC minutes released April 8 revealed officials' upward revisions to 2026 inflation outlooks and openness to potential hikes, pricing out near-term cuts and bolstering hold expectations ahead of the imminent April policy review.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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