Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 85.5% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end—implying a 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. February PCE inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year (core at 2.97%), with unemployment stable near 4.4% amid softening job gains, reinforcing a disinflationary bias despite oil shocks prompting some hike openness in April 8 minutes. Consensus anticipates policy stability or easing, with the April FOMC and upcoming PCE/CPI releases as key catalysts that could shift rate path expectations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$889,665 거래량
$889,665 거래량
2026.12.09
예
$889,665 거래량
$889,665 거래량
2026.12.09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 85.5% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end—implying a 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. February PCE inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year (core at 2.97%), with unemployment stable near 4.4% amid softening job gains, reinforcing a disinflationary bias despite oil shocks prompting some hike openness in April 8 minutes. Consensus anticipates policy stability or easing, with the April FOMC and upcoming PCE/CPI releases as key catalysts that could shift rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
거래량
$889,665종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 85.5% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end—implying a 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. February PCE inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year (core at 2.97%), with unemployment stable near 4.4% amid softening job gains, reinforcing a disinflationary bias despite oil shocks prompting some hike openness in April 8 minutes. Consensus anticipates policy stability or easing, with the April FOMC and upcoming PCE/CPI releases as key catalysts that could shift rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$889,665종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 85.5% implied probability against a Fed rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting fed funds at 3.4% by year-end—implying a 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. February PCE inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year (core at 2.97%), with unemployment stable near 4.4% amid softening job gains, reinforcing a disinflationary bias despite oil shocks prompting some hike openness in April 8 minutes. Consensus anticipates policy stability or easing, with the April FOMC and upcoming PCE/CPI releases as key catalysts that could shift rate path expectations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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