Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 17-18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid GDP growth projections of 2.4% and unemployment near 4.25%-4.50%. The latest dot plot median forecasts a single 25 basis point cut by year-end to 3.40%, reflecting sticky but oil-spiked March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% due to energy surges—yet core measures trending lower. Wall Street firms like Wells Fargo and Nomura pencil in two cuts mid-year, while futures imply a steady path around 3.6%. Key catalysts include April 29-30 FOMC projections and upcoming CPI data, with persistent inflation risks tempering but not reversing easing expectations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$891,683 거래량
$891,683 거래량
2026.12.09
예
$891,683 거래량
$891,683 거래량
2026.12.09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 17-18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid GDP growth projections of 2.4% and unemployment near 4.25%-4.50%. The latest dot plot median forecasts a single 25 basis point cut by year-end to 3.40%, reflecting sticky but oil-spiked March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% due to energy surges—yet core measures trending lower. Wall Street firms like Wells Fargo and Nomura pencil in two cuts mid-year, while futures imply a steady path around 3.6%. Key catalysts include April 29-30 FOMC projections and upcoming CPI data, with persistent inflation risks tempering but not reversing easing expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
거래량
$891,683종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 17-18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid GDP growth projections of 2.4% and unemployment near 4.25%-4.50%. The latest dot plot median forecasts a single 25 basis point cut by year-end to 3.40%, reflecting sticky but oil-spiked March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% due to energy surges—yet core measures trending lower. Wall Street firms like Wells Fargo and Nomura pencil in two cuts mid-year, while futures imply a steady path around 3.6%. Key catalysts include April 29-30 FOMC projections and upcoming CPI data, with persistent inflation risks tempering but not reversing easing expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$891,683종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 17-18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid GDP growth projections of 2.4% and unemployment near 4.25%-4.50%. The latest dot plot median forecasts a single 25 basis point cut by year-end to 3.40%, reflecting sticky but oil-spiked March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% due to energy surges—yet core measures trending lower. Wall Street firms like Wells Fargo and Nomura pencil in two cuts mid-year, while futures imply a steady path around 3.6%. Key catalysts include April 29-30 FOMC projections and upcoming CPI data, with persistent inflation risks tempering but not reversing easing expectations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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