Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Chicago's highest temperature on April 20 at 55°F or below (39% implied probability), reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the low to mid-50s amid persistent northerly flow from a lingering upper-level trough over the Midwest. This cool Canadian air mass follows a recent frontal passage after early April's milder spell, with observed highs near 48-51°F over the past week suppressing warm advection. Mid-range outcomes like 56-59°F (combined ~52%) account for model spread and possible diurnal heating under partial sun, while the 25.5% on 74°F+ captures outlier ridge scenarios. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates Sunday morning could refine these odds as resolution nears.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Chicago on April 20?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 20?
55°F or below 75%
56-57°F 17%
60-61°F 6.1%
58-59°F 4%
신규
신규
2026.04.20
55°F or below
75%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
9%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
1%
55°F or below 75%
56-57°F 17%
60-61°F 6.1%
58-59°F 4%
신규
신규
2026.04.20
55°F or below
$174 거래량
75%
56-57°F
$78 거래량
17%
58-59°F
$60 거래량
9%
60-61°F
$240 거래량
6%
62-63°F
$258 거래량
4%
64-65°F
$82 거래량
3%
66-67°F
$103 거래량
3%
68-69°F
$424 거래량
1%
70-71°F
$223 거래량
1%
72-73°F
$218 거래량
1%
74°F or higher
$222 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Chicago's highest temperature on April 20 at 55°F or below (39% implied probability), reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the low to mid-50s amid persistent northerly flow from a lingering upper-level trough over the Midwest. This cool Canadian air mass follows a recent frontal passage after early April's milder spell, with observed highs near 48-51°F over the past week suppressing warm advection. Mid-range outcomes like 56-59°F (combined ~52%) account for model spread and possible diurnal heating under partial sun, while the 25.5% on 74°F+ captures outlier ridge scenarios. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates Sunday morning could refine these odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 18, 2026, 12:40 AM ET
거래량
$2,083종료일
2026.04.20마켓 개설일
Apr 18, 2026, 12:40 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Chicago's highest temperature on April 20 at 55°F or below (39% implied probability), reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the low to mid-50s amid persistent northerly flow from a lingering upper-level trough over the Midwest. This cool Canadian air mass follows a recent frontal passage after early April's milder spell, with observed highs near 48-51°F over the past week suppressing warm advection. Mid-range outcomes like 56-59°F (combined ~52%) account for model spread and possible diurnal heating under partial sun, while the 25.5% on 74°F+ captures outlier ridge scenarios. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates Sunday morning could refine these odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$2,083종료일
2026.04.20마켓 개설일
Apr 18, 2026, 12:40 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors Chicago's highest temperature on April 20 at 55°F or below (39% implied probability), reflecting the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the low to mid-50s amid persistent northerly flow from a lingering upper-level trough over the Midwest. This cool Canadian air mass follows a recent frontal passage after early April's milder spell, with observed highs near 48-51°F over the past week suppressing warm advection. Mid-range outcomes like 56-59°F (combined ~52%) account for model spread and possible diurnal heating under partial sun, while the 25.5% on 74°F+ captures outlier ridge scenarios. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates Sunday morning could refine these odds as resolution nears.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문