Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 39.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equivalent to 0 basis points of easing—followed by 26.5% for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting a consensus for prolonged steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation. The March 2026 CPI release on April 10 showed headline inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4%, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to oil shocks from the Iran conflict, while core measures held sticky. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering growth signals. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, elevated 2026 inflation forecasts with some officials open to hikes, diverging from the dot plot's median one-cut path to 3.4%. Fed funds futures imply minimal easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst alongside 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 (0bp) 39.9%
1회 (25bp) 27%
2회 (50bp) 16%
3회 (75bp) 9%
$19,119,155 거래량
$19,119,155 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
40%
1회 (25bp)
27%
2회 (50bp)
16%
3회 (75bp)
9%
4회 (100bp)
4%
5회 (125bp)
1%
6회 (150bp)
1%
7회 (175bp)
<1%
8회 (200bp)
<1%
9회 (225bp)
<1%
10회 (250bp)
<1%
11회 (275bp)
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
1%
0 (0bp) 39.9%
1회 (25bp) 27%
2회 (50bp) 16%
3회 (75bp) 9%
$19,119,155 거래량
$19,119,155 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
$3,190,869 거래량
40%
1회 (25bp)
$1,038,739 거래량
27%
2회 (50bp)
$1,011,293 거래량
16%
3회 (75bp)
$930,948 거래량
9%
4회 (100bp)
$961,856 거래량
4%
5회 (125bp)
$1,052,683 거래량
1%
6회 (150bp)
$2,089,512 거래량
1%
7회 (175bp)
$947,297 거래량
<1%
8회 (200bp)
$1,220,827 거래량
<1%
9회 (225bp)
$1,196,730 거래량
<1%
10회 (250bp)
$1,682,620 거래량
<1%
11회 (275bp)
$1,966,747 거래량
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
$1,830,120 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 39.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equivalent to 0 basis points of easing—followed by 26.5% for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting a consensus for prolonged steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation. The March 2026 CPI release on April 10 showed headline inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4%, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to oil shocks from the Iran conflict, while core measures held sticky. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering growth signals. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, elevated 2026 inflation forecasts with some officials open to hikes, diverging from the dot plot's median one-cut path to 3.4%. Fed funds futures imply minimal easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst alongside 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
마켓 개설일: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
거래량
$19,119,155종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 39.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equivalent to 0 basis points of easing—followed by 26.5% for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting a consensus for prolonged steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation. The March 2026 CPI release on April 10 showed headline inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4%, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to oil shocks from the Iran conflict, while core measures held sticky. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering growth signals. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, elevated 2026 inflation forecasts with some officials open to hikes, diverging from the dot plot's median one-cut path to 3.4%. Fed funds futures imply minimal easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst alongside 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$19,119,155종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 39.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equivalent to 0 basis points of easing—followed by 26.5% for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting a consensus for prolonged steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation. The March 2026 CPI release on April 10 showed headline inflation jumping to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4%, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to oil shocks from the Iran conflict, while core measures held sticky. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering growth signals. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, elevated 2026 inflation forecasts with some officials open to hikes, diverging from the dot plot's median one-cut path to 3.4%. Fed funds futures imply minimal easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, with the April 28-29 meeting as the next key catalyst alongside 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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