Trader consensus prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 64.5%, reflecting exactly seven confirmed Class II incumbents—Alan Armstrong (OK), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Mitch McConnell (KY), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, running for governor)—who have announced they will not run. Recent catalysts include Armstrong's March 24 announcement and Daines' March 4 decision, stabilizing the count amid a broader wave of congressional retirements ahead of the midterms. With 20 GOP-held Class II seats up, traders assign modest odds to additional exits like 5 (8%) or 11 (6.3%), anticipating possible further announcements before primaries but viewing more as unlikely without fresh catalysts such as party pressures or scandals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7 68%
11 7.9%
5 7.7%
6 5.9%
$72,783 거래량
$72,783 거래량
2026.08.31
<5
3%
5
8%
6
6%
7
68%
8
5%
9
1%
10
1%
11
8%
12+
1%
7 68%
11 7.9%
5 7.7%
6 5.9%
$72,783 거래량
$72,783 거래량
2026.08.31
<5
$19,866 거래량
3%
5
$15,348 거래량
8%
6
$26,193 거래량
6%
7
$2,125 거래량
68%
8
$1,589 거래량
5%
9
$1,211 거래량
1%
10
$1,232 거래량
1%
11
$918 거래량
8%
12+
$4,301 거래량
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 64.5%, reflecting exactly seven confirmed Class II incumbents—Alan Armstrong (OK), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Mitch McConnell (KY), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, running for governor)—who have announced they will not run. Recent catalysts include Armstrong's March 24 announcement and Daines' March 4 decision, stabilizing the count amid a broader wave of congressional retirements ahead of the midterms. With 20 GOP-held Class II seats up, traders assign modest odds to additional exits like 5 (8%) or 11 (6.3%), anticipating possible further announcements before primaries but viewing more as unlikely without fresh catalysts such as party pressures or scandals.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
거래량
$72,783종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 64.5%, reflecting exactly seven confirmed Class II incumbents—Alan Armstrong (OK), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Mitch McConnell (KY), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, running for governor)—who have announced they will not run. Recent catalysts include Armstrong's March 24 announcement and Daines' March 4 decision, stabilizing the count amid a broader wave of congressional retirements ahead of the midterms. With 20 GOP-held Class II seats up, traders assign modest odds to additional exits like 5 (8%) or 11 (6.3%), anticipating possible further announcements before primaries but viewing more as unlikely without fresh catalysts such as party pressures or scandals.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$72,783종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 64.5%, reflecting exactly seven confirmed Class II incumbents—Alan Armstrong (OK), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Mitch McConnell (KY), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, running for governor)—who have announced they will not run. Recent catalysts include Armstrong's March 24 announcement and Daines' March 4 decision, stabilizing the count amid a broader wave of congressional retirements ahead of the midterms. With 20 GOP-held Class II seats up, traders assign modest odds to additional exits like 5 (8%) or 11 (6.3%), anticipating possible further announcements before primaries but viewing more as unlikely without fresh catalysts such as party pressures or scandals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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