Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's firm control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28. A reported early January coup plot involving former officials was swiftly suppressed, with Tehran executing plotters and admitting to "coup de grâce" measures, per official statements. No fresh indicators of military dissent or organized internal opposition have emerged in the past 30 days, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rallies volunteers and leverages Strait of Hormuz tensions for cohesion. While escalation or assassinations could shift dynamics, historical patterns of rapid crackdowns favor stability through the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$392,789 거래량
$392,789 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$392,789 거래량
$392,789 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's firm control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28. A reported early January coup plot involving former officials was swiftly suppressed, with Tehran executing plotters and admitting to "coup de grâce" measures, per official statements. No fresh indicators of military dissent or organized internal opposition have emerged in the past 30 days, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rallies volunteers and leverages Strait of Hormuz tensions for cohesion. While escalation or assassinations could shift dynamics, historical patterns of rapid crackdowns favor stability through the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
거래량
$392,789종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's firm control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28. A reported early January coup plot involving former officials was swiftly suppressed, with Tehran executing plotters and admitting to "coup de grâce" measures, per official statements. No fresh indicators of military dissent or organized internal opposition have emerged in the past 30 days, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rallies volunteers and leverages Strait of Hormuz tensions for cohesion. While escalation or assassinations could shift dynamics, historical patterns of rapid crackdowns favor stability through the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$392,789종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's firm control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28. A reported early January coup plot involving former officials was swiftly suppressed, with Tehran executing plotters and admitting to "coup de grâce" measures, per official statements. No fresh indicators of military dissent or organized internal opposition have emerged in the past 30 days, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rallies volunteers and leverages Strait of Hormuz tensions for cohesion. While escalation or assassinations could shift dynamics, historical patterns of rapid crackdowns favor stability through the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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