Israel and Lebanon agreed to a U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire on April 16 amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, halting major hostilities to enable negotiations for a permanent security arrangement. The truce, announced by President Trump, excludes Hezbollah as a direct party, with Israel insisting on the group's disarmament south of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, while reserving rights to counter threats. Early implementation shows tense calm, with thousands of displaced Lebanese returning home despite mutual violation accusations and pre-truce strikes. Prior escalations since March 2 followed breakdowns of the 2024 cessation of hostilities. Traders eye the truce's April 26 expiration and talks' progress for de-escalation signals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$40,937,497 거래량
2026.04.15
4월 18일
100%
$40,937,497 거래량
4월 18일
$26,939,757 거래량
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Israel and Lebanon agreed to a U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire on April 16 amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, halting major hostilities to enable negotiations for a permanent security arrangement. The truce, announced by President Trump, excludes Hezbollah as a direct party, with Israel insisting on the group's disarmament south of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, while reserving rights to counter threats. Early implementation shows tense calm, with thousands of displaced Lebanese returning home despite mutual violation accusations and pre-truce strikes. Prior escalations since March 2 followed breakdowns of the 2024 cessation of hostilities. Traders eye the truce's April 26 expiration and talks' progress for de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
거래량
$40,937,497종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Israel and Lebanon agreed to a U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire on April 16 amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, halting major hostilities to enable negotiations for a permanent security arrangement. The truce, announced by President Trump, excludes Hezbollah as a direct party, with Israel insisting on the group's disarmament south of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, while reserving rights to counter threats. Early implementation shows tense calm, with thousands of displaced Lebanese returning home despite mutual violation accusations and pre-truce strikes. Prior escalations since March 2 followed breakdowns of the 2024 cessation of hostilities. Traders eye the truce's April 26 expiration and talks' progress for de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$40,937,497종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire on April 16 amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, halting major hostilities to enable negotiations for a permanent security arrangement. The truce, announced by President Trump, excludes Hezbollah as a direct party, with Israel insisting on the group's disarmament south of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, while reserving rights to counter threats. Early implementation shows tense calm, with thousands of displaced Lebanese returning home despite mutual violation accusations and pre-truce strikes. Prior escalations since March 2 followed breakdowns of the 2024 cessation of hostilities. Traders eye the truce's April 26 expiration and talks' progress for de-escalation signals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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