Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability on "No" for Sen. Lisa Murkowski leaving the Republican Party in 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, registration changes, or caucus shifts despite ongoing intraparty tensions. Her March 2026 procedural vote as the lone Republican against advancing President Trump's SAVE Act—mandating proof of citizenship for federal voting—sparked backlash and primary challenge calls from Alaska GOP factions, yet she reaffirmed her Senate Republican role, including eyeing the Appropriations defense subcommittee gavel as Sen. Mitch McConnell retires. Earlier 2025 podcast comments expressing "openness" to independence have not progressed amid Alaska's ranked-choice voting, which aided her 2022 write-in primary survival; no developments since mid-March alter this steady positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability on "No" for Sen. Lisa Murkowski leaving the Republican Party in 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, registration changes, or caucus shifts despite ongoing intraparty tensions. Her March 2026 procedural vote as the lone Republican against advancing President Trump's SAVE Act—mandating proof of citizenship for federal voting—sparked backlash and primary challenge calls from Alaska GOP factions, yet she reaffirmed her Senate Republican role, including eyeing the Appropriations defense subcommittee gavel as Sen. Mitch McConnell retires. Earlier 2025 podcast comments expressing "openness" to independence have not progressed amid Alaska's ranked-choice voting, which aided her 2022 write-in primary survival; no developments since mid-March alter this steady positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
거래량
$3,240종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability on "No" for Sen. Lisa Murkowski leaving the Republican Party in 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, registration changes, or caucus shifts despite ongoing intraparty tensions. Her March 2026 procedural vote as the lone Republican against advancing President Trump's SAVE Act—mandating proof of citizenship for federal voting—sparked backlash and primary challenge calls from Alaska GOP factions, yet she reaffirmed her Senate Republican role, including eyeing the Appropriations defense subcommittee gavel as Sen. Mitch McConnell retires. Earlier 2025 podcast comments expressing "openness" to independence have not progressed amid Alaska's ranked-choice voting, which aided her 2022 write-in primary survival; no developments since mid-March alter this steady positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$3,240종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability on "No" for Sen. Lisa Murkowski leaving the Republican Party in 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, registration changes, or caucus shifts despite ongoing intraparty tensions. Her March 2026 procedural vote as the lone Republican against advancing President Trump's SAVE Act—mandating proof of citizenship for federal voting—sparked backlash and primary challenge calls from Alaska GOP factions, yet she reaffirmed her Senate Republican role, including eyeing the Appropriations defense subcommittee gavel as Sen. Mitch McConnell retires. Earlier 2025 podcast comments expressing "openness" to independence have not progressed amid Alaska's ranked-choice voting, which aided her 2022 write-in primary survival; no developments since mid-March alter this steady positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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