Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 95.8% stems from no qualified Republican appearing on the November general election ballot, following the February 3 filing deadline when all GOP hopefuls were disqualified for insufficient voter signatures. Late March certification of candidates confirmed Luján faces only Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson on June 2, with a lone Republican write-in bid by Larry Marker posing minimal historical threat in New Mexico's Democratic-leaning landscape (Cook PVI D+8). This structural advantage, absent recent polling shifts, underpins the lopsided odds. Potential disruptions include a primary upset, write-in momentum, or late scandal affecting Luján before resolution on election certification.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,407 거래량
$13,407 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
96%
공화당
3%
$13,407 거래량
$13,407 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,842 거래량
96%
공화당
$5,565 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 95.8% stems from no qualified Republican appearing on the November general election ballot, following the February 3 filing deadline when all GOP hopefuls were disqualified for insufficient voter signatures. Late March certification of candidates confirmed Luján faces only Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson on June 2, with a lone Republican write-in bid by Larry Marker posing minimal historical threat in New Mexico's Democratic-leaning landscape (Cook PVI D+8). This structural advantage, absent recent polling shifts, underpins the lopsided odds. Potential disruptions include a primary upset, write-in momentum, or late scandal affecting Luján before resolution on election certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$13,407종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 95.8% stems from no qualified Republican appearing on the November general election ballot, following the February 3 filing deadline when all GOP hopefuls were disqualified for insufficient voter signatures. Late March certification of candidates confirmed Luján faces only Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson on June 2, with a lone Republican write-in bid by Larry Marker posing minimal historical threat in New Mexico's Democratic-leaning landscape (Cook PVI D+8). This structural advantage, absent recent polling shifts, underpins the lopsided odds. Potential disruptions include a primary upset, write-in momentum, or late scandal affecting Luján before resolution on election certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$13,407종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 95.8% stems from no qualified Republican appearing on the November general election ballot, following the February 3 filing deadline when all GOP hopefuls were disqualified for insufficient voter signatures. Late March certification of candidates confirmed Luján faces only Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson on June 2, with a lone Republican write-in bid by Larry Marker posing minimal historical threat in New Mexico's Democratic-leaning landscape (Cook PVI D+8). This structural advantage, absent recent polling shifts, underpins the lopsided odds. Potential disruptions include a primary upset, write-in momentum, or late scandal affecting Luján before resolution on election certification.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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