Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with over 83 percent in the June 2 primary against limited opposition, while the Republican side advanced write-in candidate Larry Marker after no contenders qualified for the ballot. New Mexico has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and independent race ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. These structural factors, combined with the state's partisan lean and Luján's established record, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A shift would require an unusually disruptive event such as a major scandal or health development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,109 거래량
$17,109 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
3%
$17,109 거래량
$17,109 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$8,229 거래량
95%
공화당
$8,880 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with over 83 percent in the June 2 primary against limited opposition, while the Republican side advanced write-in candidate Larry Marker after no contenders qualified for the ballot. New Mexico has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and independent race ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. These structural factors, combined with the state's partisan lean and Luján's established record, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A shift would require an unusually disruptive event such as a major scandal or health development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$17,109종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with over 83 percent in the June 2 primary against limited opposition, while the Republican side advanced write-in candidate Larry Marker after no contenders qualified for the ballot. New Mexico has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and independent race ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. These structural factors, combined with the state's partisan lean and Luján's established record, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A shift would require an unusually disruptive event such as a major scandal or health development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$17,109종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján secured his party's nomination with over 83 percent in the June 2 primary against limited opposition, while the Republican side advanced write-in candidate Larry Marker after no contenders qualified for the ballot. New Mexico has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and independent race ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. These structural factors, combined with the state's partisan lean and Luján's established record, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A shift would require an unusually disruptive event such as a major scandal or health development affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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