Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party (SNP) as the winner of the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling leads of 13-16 points in recent surveys from YouGov, Ipsos, and others, alongside MRP models projecting 67 SNP seats—enough for a Holyrood majority. John Swinney's SNP has solidified its position through steady constituency vote dominance around 35-40%, bolstered by the April 16 manifesto pledging food price caps and public service investments, amid leader debates and minor opponent controversies like candidate swaps. Reform UK's rise to second place splits anti-SNP votes without threatening overall victory, per trader consensus. Late-breaking scandals, a sudden polling collapse, or turnout surges in swing seats could challenge this, though recent stability suggests low risk.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트스코틀랜드 국민당 97.9%
리폼 UK 1.0%
스코틀랜드 보수당 <1%
스코틀랜드 자유민주당 <1%
$1,628,373 거래량
$1,628,373 거래량
2026.05.07
스코틀랜드 국민당
98%
리폼 UK
1%
스코틀랜드 보수당
<1%
스코틀랜드 자유민주당
<1%
스코틀랜드 노동당
<1%
주권당
<1%
알바당
<1%
스코틀랜드 녹색당
<1%
스코틀랜드 국민당 97.9%
리폼 UK 1.0%
스코틀랜드 보수당 <1%
스코틀랜드 자유민주당 <1%
$1,628,373 거래량
$1,628,373 거래량
2026.05.07
스코틀랜드 국민당
$1,310,649 거래량
98%
리폼 UK
$85,452 거래량
1%
스코틀랜드 보수당
$10,179 거래량
<1%
스코틀랜드 자유민주당
$108,872 거래량
<1%
스코틀랜드 노동당
$45,696 거래량
<1%
주권당
$7,233 거래량
<1%
알바당
$17,958 거래량
<1%
스코틀랜드 녹색당
$42,333 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party (SNP) as the winner of the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling leads of 13-16 points in recent surveys from YouGov, Ipsos, and others, alongside MRP models projecting 67 SNP seats—enough for a Holyrood majority. John Swinney's SNP has solidified its position through steady constituency vote dominance around 35-40%, bolstered by the April 16 manifesto pledging food price caps and public service investments, amid leader debates and minor opponent controversies like candidate swaps. Reform UK's rise to second place splits anti-SNP votes without threatening overall victory, per trader consensus. Late-breaking scandals, a sudden polling collapse, or turnout surges in swing seats could challenge this, though recent stability suggests low risk.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
거래량
$1,628,373종료일
2026.05.07마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party (SNP) as the winner of the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling leads of 13-16 points in recent surveys from YouGov, Ipsos, and others, alongside MRP models projecting 67 SNP seats—enough for a Holyrood majority. John Swinney's SNP has solidified its position through steady constituency vote dominance around 35-40%, bolstered by the April 16 manifesto pledging food price caps and public service investments, amid leader debates and minor opponent controversies like candidate swaps. Reform UK's rise to second place splits anti-SNP votes without threatening overall victory, per trader consensus. Late-breaking scandals, a sudden polling collapse, or turnout surges in swing seats could challenge this, though recent stability suggests low risk.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
거래량
$1,628,373종료일
2026.05.07마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back the Scottish National Party (SNP) as the winner of the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling leads of 13-16 points in recent surveys from YouGov, Ipsos, and others, alongside MRP models projecting 67 SNP seats—enough for a Holyrood majority. John Swinney's SNP has solidified its position through steady constituency vote dominance around 35-40%, bolstered by the April 16 manifesto pledging food price caps and public service investments, amid leader debates and minor opponent controversies like candidate swaps. Reform UK's rise to second place splits anti-SNP votes without threatening overall victory, per trader consensus. Late-breaking scandals, a sudden polling collapse, or turnout surges in swing seats could challenge this, though recent stability suggests low risk.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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