The Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling affirming a preliminary injunction for Kalshi against New Jersey has intensified a federal court split over whether sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, granting the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempting state gambling laws. This contrasts with the Southern District of Ohio's March 9 denial of Kalshi's injunction, where the court held such contracts fall under state sports betting regulations, leading to a $5 million fine by the Ohio Casino Control Commission this week. Traders anticipate certiorari petitions from losing parties, with SCOTUS grant on a qualifying case determining resolution by the market deadline; upcoming Sixth Circuit arguments in Ohio and Ninth Circuit hearings could further solidify the split.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$936,129 거래량
2026.12.31
7월 31일
14%
12월 31일
28%
$936,129 거래량
7월 31일
$929,259 거래량
14%
12월 31일
$6,870 거래량
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling affirming a preliminary injunction for Kalshi against New Jersey has intensified a federal court split over whether sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, granting the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempting state gambling laws. This contrasts with the Southern District of Ohio's March 9 denial of Kalshi's injunction, where the court held such contracts fall under state sports betting regulations, leading to a $5 million fine by the Ohio Casino Control Commission this week. Traders anticipate certiorari petitions from losing parties, with SCOTUS grant on a qualifying case determining resolution by the market deadline; upcoming Sixth Circuit arguments in Ohio and Ninth Circuit hearings could further solidify the split.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
거래량
$936,129종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling affirming a preliminary injunction for Kalshi against New Jersey has intensified a federal court split over whether sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, granting the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempting state gambling laws. This contrasts with the Southern District of Ohio's March 9 denial of Kalshi's injunction, where the court held such contracts fall under state sports betting regulations, leading to a $5 million fine by the Ohio Casino Control Commission this week. Traders anticipate certiorari petitions from losing parties, with SCOTUS grant on a qualifying case determining resolution by the market deadline; upcoming Sixth Circuit arguments in Ohio and Ninth Circuit hearings could further solidify the split.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
거래량
$936,129종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Third Circuit's April 6, 2026, 2-1 ruling affirming a preliminary injunction for Kalshi against New Jersey has intensified a federal court split over whether sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, granting the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempting state gambling laws. This contrasts with the Southern District of Ohio's March 9 denial of Kalshi's injunction, where the court held such contracts fall under state sports betting regulations, leading to a $5 million fine by the Ohio Casino Control Commission this week. Traders anticipate certiorari petitions from losing parties, with SCOTUS grant on a qualifying case determining resolution by the market deadline; upcoming Sixth Circuit arguments in Ohio and Ninth Circuit hearings could further solidify the split.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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