Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 65% implied probability for "No" on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issuing a new combined operating license (COL)—authorizing both construction and operation of a nuclear power plant—by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any such approvals to date despite regulatory momentum. The NRC's March 4 issuance of a construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium advanced reactor marked the first commercial permit in nearly a decade, signaling progress for next-generation sodium-cooled designs, while the March 25 finalization of Part 53 introduced a risk-informed framework to streamline advanced reactor licensing. However, historical COL review timelines exceed three years, and no pending applications appear positioned for completion in the remaining eight months, tempering optimism amid ongoing docket reviews for small modular reactors (SMRs) like those at Palisades. Key catalysts include imminent decisions on phased construction permits and potential DOE demonstrations, though delays remain a persistent risk in the nuclear regulatory environment.