Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a permanent peace agreement on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, centering on nuclear enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, regional security, and Strait of Hormuz access under a fragile ceasefire following February US and Israeli strikes. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports days later, heightening tensions, while President Trump signaled a second round could occur soon, potentially by April 27, with Pakistan—via Army Chief Asim Munir's recent Tehran visit—mediating a two-phase framework. Disagreements persist on war termination and reparations, leaving traders focused on upcoming diplomatic sessions amid oil market volatility and escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$7,721,687 거래량
2026.05.31
4월 22일
22%
4월 30일
39%
5월 31일
60%
6월 30일
73%
$7,721,687 거래량
4월 22일
$5,113,703 거래량
22%
4월 30일
$1,426,289 거래량
39%
5월 31일
$954,632 거래량
60%
6월 30일
$230,298 거래량
73%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a permanent peace agreement on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, centering on nuclear enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, regional security, and Strait of Hormuz access under a fragile ceasefire following February US and Israeli strikes. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports days later, heightening tensions, while President Trump signaled a second round could occur soon, potentially by April 27, with Pakistan—via Army Chief Asim Munir's recent Tehran visit—mediating a two-phase framework. Disagreements persist on war termination and reparations, leaving traders focused on upcoming diplomatic sessions amid oil market volatility and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
거래량
$7,721,687종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a permanent peace agreement on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, centering on nuclear enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, regional security, and Strait of Hormuz access under a fragile ceasefire following February US and Israeli strikes. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports days later, heightening tensions, while President Trump signaled a second round could occur soon, potentially by April 27, with Pakistan—via Army Chief Asim Munir's recent Tehran visit—mediating a two-phase framework. Disagreements persist on war termination and reparations, leaving traders focused on upcoming diplomatic sessions amid oil market volatility and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$7,721,687종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a permanent peace agreement on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, centering on nuclear enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, regional security, and Strait of Hormuz access under a fragile ceasefire following February US and Israeli strikes. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports days later, heightening tensions, while President Trump signaled a second round could occur soon, potentially by April 27, with Pakistan—via Army Chief Asim Munir's recent Tehran visit—mediating a two-phase framework. Disagreements persist on war termination and reparations, leaving traders focused on upcoming diplomatic sessions amid oil market volatility and escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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