President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$59,625 거래량
2026.04.30
키어 스타머
63%
바락 오바마
67%
마저리 테일러 그린
49%
터커 칼슨
30%
메긴 켈리
29%
레오 14세 교황
27%
알렉스 존스
15%
팸 본디
8%
베냐민 네타냐후
5%
일론 머스크
4%
블라디미르 푸틴
3%
빅토르 오르반
2%
J.D. 밴스
2%
시진핑
2%
멜라니아 트럼프
1%
캔디스 오언스
43%
$59,625 거래량
키어 스타머
$40 거래량
63%
바락 오바마
$1,683 거래량
67%
마저리 테일러 그린
$167 거래량
49%
터커 칼슨
$763 거래량
30%
메긴 켈리
$0 거래량
29%
레오 14세 교황
$1,690 거래량
27%
알렉스 존스
$1,314 거래량
15%
팸 본디
$451 거래량
8%
베냐민 네타냐후
$6,037 거래량
5%
일론 머스크
$842 거래량
4%
블라디미르 푸틴
$1,438 거래량
3%
빅토르 오르반
$3,319 거래량
2%
J.D. 밴스
$3,104 거래량
2%
시진핑
$6,188 거래량
2%
멜라니아 트럼프
$5,124 거래량
1%
캔디스 오언스
$47 거래량
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
거래량
$59,625종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$59,625종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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