US intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded China has no fixed timeline or current plans for invading Taiwan through 2027, emphasizing Beijing's preference for unification without force due to immense military, economic, and diplomatic costs, including likely US intervention. This view, echoed in trader consensus at 97.2% "No," aligns with April 10 diplomatic engagement when Xi Jinping met Taiwan's opposition KMT chairwoman, prompting resumed direct flights and trade incentives amid routine gray-zone coercion like Taiwan Strait naval patrols. Absent invasion buildup by PLA forces, high confidence persists despite structural risks in amphibious operations; scenarios like a Taiwan independence declaration or sharp US deterrence lapse could shift probabilities before June 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$5,884,248 거래량
$5,884,248 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$5,884,248 거래량
$5,884,248 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded China has no fixed timeline or current plans for invading Taiwan through 2027, emphasizing Beijing's preference for unification without force due to immense military, economic, and diplomatic costs, including likely US intervention. This view, echoed in trader consensus at 97.2% "No," aligns with April 10 diplomatic engagement when Xi Jinping met Taiwan's opposition KMT chairwoman, prompting resumed direct flights and trade incentives amid routine gray-zone coercion like Taiwan Strait naval patrols. Absent invasion buildup by PLA forces, high confidence persists despite structural risks in amphibious operations; scenarios like a Taiwan independence declaration or sharp US deterrence lapse could shift probabilities before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
거래량
$5,884,248종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded China has no fixed timeline or current plans for invading Taiwan through 2027, emphasizing Beijing's preference for unification without force due to immense military, economic, and diplomatic costs, including likely US intervention. This view, echoed in trader consensus at 97.2% "No," aligns with April 10 diplomatic engagement when Xi Jinping met Taiwan's opposition KMT chairwoman, prompting resumed direct flights and trade incentives amid routine gray-zone coercion like Taiwan Strait naval patrols. Absent invasion buildup by PLA forces, high confidence persists despite structural risks in amphibious operations; scenarios like a Taiwan independence declaration or sharp US deterrence lapse could shift probabilities before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$5,884,329종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded China has no fixed timeline or current plans for invading Taiwan through 2027, emphasizing Beijing's preference for unification without force due to immense military, economic, and diplomatic costs, including likely US intervention. This view, echoed in trader consensus at 97.2% "No," aligns with April 10 diplomatic engagement when Xi Jinping met Taiwan's opposition KMT chairwoman, prompting resumed direct flights and trade incentives amid routine gray-zone coercion like Taiwan Strait naval patrols. Absent invasion buildup by PLA forces, high confidence persists despite structural risks in amphibious operations; scenarios like a Taiwan independence declaration or sharp US deterrence lapse could shift probabilities before June 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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