Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the regime's resilience amid a recent US-Israel-Iran ceasefire that halted military escalation and quelled widespread 2025-2026 protests through brutal suppression and internet shutdowns. Despite Pahlavi's high-profile March-April speeches—at CPAC pledging to "make Iran great again," the Swedish Parliament urging continued resistance, and announcements of transitional leadership readiness—no mass defections from the IRGC or unified opposition have emerged, with fragmented exile groups and domestic skeptics viewing him as a foreign-backed figure lacking internal legitimacy. Trump administration officials have dismissed him as non-viable, favoring insiders, while Ayatollah Khamenei's succession bolsters clerical control; only renewed unrest or elite fractures could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,059,054 거래량
$1,059,054 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$1,059,054 거래량
$1,059,054 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the regime's resilience amid a recent US-Israel-Iran ceasefire that halted military escalation and quelled widespread 2025-2026 protests through brutal suppression and internet shutdowns. Despite Pahlavi's high-profile March-April speeches—at CPAC pledging to "make Iran great again," the Swedish Parliament urging continued resistance, and announcements of transitional leadership readiness—no mass defections from the IRGC or unified opposition have emerged, with fragmented exile groups and domestic skeptics viewing him as a foreign-backed figure lacking internal legitimacy. Trump administration officials have dismissed him as non-viable, favoring insiders, while Ayatollah Khamenei's succession bolsters clerical control; only renewed unrest or elite fractures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
거래량
$1,059,054종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the regime's resilience amid a recent US-Israel-Iran ceasefire that halted military escalation and quelled widespread 2025-2026 protests through brutal suppression and internet shutdowns. Despite Pahlavi's high-profile March-April speeches—at CPAC pledging to "make Iran great again," the Swedish Parliament urging continued resistance, and announcements of transitional leadership readiness—no mass defections from the IRGC or unified opposition have emerged, with fragmented exile groups and domestic skeptics viewing him as a foreign-backed figure lacking internal legitimacy. Trump administration officials have dismissed him as non-viable, favoring insiders, while Ayatollah Khamenei's succession bolsters clerical control; only renewed unrest or elite fractures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,059,054종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the regime's resilience amid a recent US-Israel-Iran ceasefire that halted military escalation and quelled widespread 2025-2026 protests through brutal suppression and internet shutdowns. Despite Pahlavi's high-profile March-April speeches—at CPAC pledging to "make Iran great again," the Swedish Parliament urging continued resistance, and announcements of transitional leadership readiness—no mass defections from the IRGC or unified opposition have emerged, with fragmented exile groups and domestic skeptics viewing him as a foreign-backed figure lacking internal legitimacy. Trump administration officials have dismissed him as non-viable, favoring insiders, while Ayatollah Khamenei's succession bolsters clerical control; only renewed unrest or elite fractures could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문