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정치·트럼프

2026년 말까지 트럼프는 탄핵될 것인가?

Market icon
정치·트럼프

2026년 말까지 트럼프는 탄핵될 것인가?

6월 30

12월 31

1월 20, 2029

6월 30

12월 31

1월 20, 2029

예

13% 확률
Polymarket

$692,396 거래량

예

13% 확률
Polymarket

$692,396 거래량

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House with a 218-213 majority, alongside a Senate edge, forms the primary barrier to impeachment, requiring a simple House majority to advance articles and two-thirds Senate approval for conviction—outcomes traders deem unlikely before year-end. Recent Democratic pushes, including Rep. John Larson's April 7 articles of impeachment (H.Res.1155) and calls for 25th Amendment invocation over President Trump's Iran threats, gained no Republican support after his ceasefire agreement de-escalated tensions. Symbolic resolutions like H.Res.939 persist as partisan theater without procedural progress. With 2026 midterms seven months away potentially flipping the House, trader consensus prices just 12.5% odds of impeachment by December 31, reflecting historical low success rates absent bipartisan buy-in and time constraints post-election.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
거래량
$692,396
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

정산자

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House with a 218-213 majority, alongside a Senate edge, forms the primary barrier to impeachment, requiring a simple House majority to advance articles and two-thirds Senate approval for conviction—outcomes traders deem unlikely before year-end. Recent Democratic pushes, including Rep. John Larson's April 7 articles of impeachment (H.Res.1155) and calls for 25th Amendment invocation over President Trump's Iran threats, gained no Republican support after his ceasefire agreement de-escalated tensions. Symbolic resolutions like H.Res.939 persist as partisan theater without procedural progress. With 2026 midterms seven months away potentially flipping the House, trader consensus prices just 12.5% odds of impeachment by December 31, reflecting historical low success rates absent bipartisan buy-in and time constraints post-election.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
거래량
$692,396
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

정산자

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

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자주 묻는 질문

"2026년 말까지 트럼프는 탄핵될 것인가?"은 2개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 13%의 "트럼프가 2026년 말까지 탄핵될 것인가?"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 13¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 13%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026년 말까지 트럼프는 탄핵될 것인가?"은 총 $692.4K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Jul 25, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 말까지 트럼프는 탄핵될 것인가?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 2개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 말까지 트럼프는 탄핵될 것인가?"의 현재 유력 후보는 13%의 "트럼프가 2026년 말까지 탄핵될 것인가?"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 13%의 확률을 부여합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026년 말까지 트럼프는 탄핵될 것인가?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.