The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 24?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 24?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 Wol.
$17,327 Wol.
May 24, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 Wol.
$17,327 Wol.
May 24, 2026
21°C or below
$702 Wol.
No
22°C
$603 Wol.
No
23°C
$886 Wol.
No
24°C
$1,715 Wol.
No
25°C
$1,267 Wol.
No
26°C
$2,655 Wol.
No
27°C
$2,121 Wol.
No
28°C
$2,998 Wol.
Yes
29°C
$2,596 Wol.
No
30°C
$1,052 Wol.
No
31°C or higher
$733 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,327Data zakończenia
May 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$17,327Data zakończenia
May 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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