Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s executive system, with the next scheduled vote in May of that year. Recent statements from the president and his Nationalist Movement Party ally signal continuity rather than departure, while parliamentary majorities needed for an early election that could reset eligibility remain short of the required threshold. Legal proceedings against leading opposition figures have further reduced near-term challenges. Traders assign only a 5.5% chance of removal by year-end, reflecting the absence of resignation signals, health developments, or institutional triggers within the narrow window. Late-breaking events such as sudden parliamentary defections or constitutional maneuvers could still shift odds before December 31.