Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed after Marco Rubio's resignation to serve as U.S. secretary of state, facing a Democratic nominee to be determined in the August 18 primary between Angela Nixon and Alex Vindman. Moody holds consistent leads of 8–10 points in recent polling from sources including the University of North Florida and Emerson College, reflecting Florida's Republican lean, the state's voting patterns in prior Senate contests, and the advantages of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican win based on these structural factors and polling trends, though the outcome remains subject to general election dynamics through November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$68,903 Vol.
$68,903 Vol.
Republicano
87%
Democrata
13%
$68,903 Vol.
$68,903 Vol.
Republicano
$39,045 Vol.
87%
Democrata
$29,859 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed after Marco Rubio's resignation to serve as U.S. secretary of state, facing a Democratic nominee to be determined in the August 18 primary between Angela Nixon and Alex Vindman. Moody holds consistent leads of 8–10 points in recent polling from sources including the University of North Florida and Emerson College, reflecting Florida's Republican lean, the state's voting patterns in prior Senate contests, and the advantages of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican win based on these structural factors and polling trends, though the outcome remains subject to general election dynamics through November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$68,903Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed after Marco Rubio's resignation to serve as U.S. secretary of state, facing a Democratic nominee to be determined in the August 18 primary between Angela Nixon and Alex Vindman. Moody holds consistent leads of 8–10 points in recent polling from sources including the University of North Florida and Emerson College, reflecting Florida's Republican lean, the state's voting patterns in prior Senate contests, and the advantages of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican win based on these structural factors and polling trends, though the outcome remains subject to general election dynamics through November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$68,903Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed after Marco Rubio's resignation to serve as U.S. secretary of state, facing a Democratic nominee to be determined in the August 18 primary between Angela Nixon and Alex Vindman. Moody holds consistent leads of 8–10 points in recent polling from sources including the University of North Florida and Emerson College, reflecting Florida's Republican lean, the state's voting patterns in prior Senate contests, and the advantages of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican win based on these structural factors and polling trends, though the outcome remains subject to general election dynamics through November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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