The latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast, issued April 4, projects a high of 24°C in Tokyo on April 6 amid cloudy skies and a 30% precipitation chance, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 21°C (32%) and 22°C (28%) due to ensemble model spread showing potential for increased cloud cover to cap peak heating. This reflects genuine short-range uncertainty in southerly airflow strength and solar insolation, with warmer-than-average spring conditions—fueled by persistent upper-level high pressure and early cherry blossom full bloom—pushing above the historical early April average of 18°C. Tenki.jp aligns at 24°C with sunny intervals turning cloudy, but traders weigh risks of overcast suppressing maxima. Key watch: JMA's April 5 update and real-time observations from Haneda Airport station, which resolves the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 6?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 6?
21°C 32%
22°C 28%
20°C 21%
23°C or higher 11%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
5%
19°C
10%
20°C
21%
21°C
32%
22°C
28%
23°C or higher
11%
21°C 32%
22°C 28%
20°C 21%
23°C or higher 11%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
5%
19°C
10%
20°C
21%
21°C
32%
22°C
28%
23°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast, issued April 4, projects a high of 24°C in Tokyo on April 6 amid cloudy skies and a 30% precipitation chance, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 21°C (32%) and 22°C (28%) due to ensemble model spread showing potential for increased cloud cover to cap peak heating. This reflects genuine short-range uncertainty in southerly airflow strength and solar insolation, with warmer-than-average spring conditions—fueled by persistent upper-level high pressure and early cherry blossom full bloom—pushing above the historical early April average of 18°C. Tenki.jp aligns at 24°C with sunny intervals turning cloudy, but traders weigh risks of overcast suppressing maxima. Key watch: JMA's April 5 update and real-time observations from Haneda Airport station, which resolves the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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