Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 14°C or higher as Madrid's highest temperature on April 8, with 97.5% implied probability, driven by the latest AEMET seasonal forecast indicating above-normal temperatures for April 6–12 across Spain, including a warming trend under persistent high-pressure systems over Iberia. Official 10-day outlooks from AEMET and ECMWF models project daytime highs around 20–23°C, well exceeding the threshold, aligned with Madrid's climatological April average of 18°C and recent observations of mild spring conditions without cold fronts. This strong model agreement reflects stable atmospheric patterns, though a realistic challenge could arise from an unforeseen northward shift in polar air masses or increased cloud cover, prompting daily forecast updates from AEMET expected through resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 8?
14°C or higher 98.0%
13°C 1.1%
9°C <1%
6°C <1%
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
98%
14°C or higher 98.0%
13°C 1.1%
9°C <1%
6°C <1%
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
98%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 14°C or higher as Madrid's highest temperature on April 8, with 97.5% implied probability, driven by the latest AEMET seasonal forecast indicating above-normal temperatures for April 6–12 across Spain, including a warming trend under persistent high-pressure systems over Iberia. Official 10-day outlooks from AEMET and ECMWF models project daytime highs around 20–23°C, well exceeding the threshold, aligned with Madrid's climatological April average of 18°C and recent observations of mild spring conditions without cold fronts. This strong model agreement reflects stable atmospheric patterns, though a realistic challenge could arise from an unforeseen northward shift in polar air masses or increased cloud cover, prompting daily forecast updates from AEMET expected through resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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