Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 24-27°C, fueling trader consensus on these outcomes amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that favors subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm continental air advection. The razor-thin spread between 24°C (25.0% implied probability), 25°C (17.5%), and 26°C (26.5%) stems from minor model divergences on peak afternoon heating, potential thin cirrus clouds, and ridge amplitude, all against a seasonal average of about 18°C—well above climatology but within April's historical range up to 30°C. New 12-hourly model runs from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS will refine this uncertainty before resolution via official Retiro station observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
26°C 28%
24°C 25%
25°C 18%
23°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
13%
24°C
25%
25°C
18%
26°C
28%
27°C
12%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 28%
24°C 25%
25°C 18%
23°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
19°C or below
$482 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$354 Vol.
1%
21°C
$325 Vol.
2%
22°C
$426 Vol.
4%
23°C
$433 Vol.
13%
24°C
$491 Vol.
25%
25°C
$429 Vol.
18%
26°C
$557 Vol.
28%
27°C
$380 Vol.
12%
28°C
$373 Vol.
5%
29°C or higher
$562 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 24-27°C, fueling trader consensus on these outcomes amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that favors subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm continental air advection. The razor-thin spread between 24°C (25.0% implied probability), 25°C (17.5%), and 26°C (26.5%) stems from minor model divergences on peak afternoon heating, potential thin cirrus clouds, and ridge amplitude, all against a seasonal average of about 18°C—well above climatology but within April's historical range up to 30°C. New 12-hourly model runs from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS will refine this uncertainty before resolution via official Retiro station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ET
Volume
$4,812Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 24-27°C, fueling trader consensus on these outcomes amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that favors subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm continental air advection. The razor-thin spread between 24°C (25.0% implied probability), 25°C (17.5%), and 26°C (26.5%) stems from minor model divergences on peak afternoon heating, potential thin cirrus clouds, and ridge amplitude, all against a seasonal average of about 18°C—well above climatology but within April's historical range up to 30°C. New 12-hourly model runs from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS will refine this uncertainty before resolution via official Retiro station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,812Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 24-27°C, fueling trader consensus on these outcomes amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia that favors subsidence warming, clear skies, and warm continental air advection. The razor-thin spread between 24°C (25.0% implied probability), 25°C (17.5%), and 26°C (26.5%) stems from minor model divergences on peak afternoon heating, potential thin cirrus clouds, and ridge amplitude, all against a seasonal average of about 18°C—well above climatology but within April's historical range up to 30°C. New 12-hourly model runs from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS will refine this uncertainty before resolution via official Retiro station observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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