Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 12 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 12 de setembro?
20°C 100.0%
16°C ou menos <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$7,649 Vol.
$7,649 Vol.
12 set 2026
16°C ou menos
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Sim
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C
Não
26°C ou mais
Não
20°C 100.0%
16°C ou menos <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$7,649 Vol.
$7,649 Vol.
12 set 2026
16°C ou menos
$87 Vol.
Não
17°C
$63 Vol.
Não
18°C
$254 Vol.
Não
19°C
$1,863 Vol.
Não
20°C
$1,888 Vol.
Sim
21°C
$3,100 Vol.
Não
22°C
$157 Vol.
Não
23°C
$47 Vol.
Não
24°C
$63 Vol.
Não
25°C
$63 Vol.
Não
26°C ou mais
$63 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$7,649Data de Término
12 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,649Data de Término
12 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Recent observations and forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo's overnight low on September 12 stabilizing near 20°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds that limit radiative cooling and advect cooler maritime air. These conditions follow a mid-month cooldown with elevated humidity and reduced solar insolation, aligning with climatological September averages while suppressing typical diurnal recovery. Model consensus favors this range over warmer or cooler extremes, as steering patterns and moisture maintain stable boundary-layer temperatures without significant cold-air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh these verified synoptic factors heavily in the implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions