Traders assign the highest implied probability to a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings at 24.5%, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent core inflation and a resilient labor market will prompt the Federal Reserve to deliver one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Recent CPI and employment data have shown mixed readings that keep both modest tightening and a hold in play, while Treasury yields and market-implied forward rates remain sensitive to incoming releases. With the top four paths clustered between 24.5% and 14.5%, the market prices in a data-dependent path where September inflation figures and the first meeting outcome will likely determine whether subsequent decisions shift toward additional hikes or extended pauses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение–Пауза–Повышение 25%
Повышение–повышение–пауза 20%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение 19%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 14%
$26,229 Объем
$26,229 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
25%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
14%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
19%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
20%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
3%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
13%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
4%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
1%
Другое
7%
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение 25%
Повышение–повышение–пауза 20%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение 19%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 14%
$26,229 Объем
$26,229 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
$1,796 Объем
25%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
$1,632 Объем
14%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
$1,611 Объем
19%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
$1,762 Объем
20%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
$1,584 Объем
3%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$14,704 Объем
13%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
$1,300 Объем
4%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
$1,453 Объем
1%
Другое
$388 Объем
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign the highest implied probability to a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings at 24.5%, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent core inflation and a resilient labor market will prompt the Federal Reserve to deliver one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Recent CPI and employment data have shown mixed readings that keep both modest tightening and a hold in play, while Treasury yields and market-implied forward rates remain sensitive to incoming releases. With the top four paths clustered between 24.5% and 14.5%, the market prices in a data-dependent path where September inflation figures and the first meeting outcome will likely determine whether subsequent decisions shift toward additional hikes or extended pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Объем
$26,229Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign the highest implied probability to a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings at 24.5%, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent core inflation and a resilient labor market will prompt the Federal Reserve to deliver one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Recent CPI and employment data have shown mixed readings that keep both modest tightening and a hold in play, while Treasury yields and market-implied forward rates remain sensitive to incoming releases. With the top four paths clustered between 24.5% and 14.5%, the market prices in a data-dependent path where September inflation figures and the first meeting outcome will likely determine whether subsequent decisions shift toward additional hikes or extended pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$26,229Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability to a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings at 24.5%, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent core inflation and a resilient labor market will prompt the Federal Reserve to deliver one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Recent CPI and employment data have shown mixed readings that keep both modest tightening and a hold in play, while Treasury yields and market-implied forward rates remain sensitive to incoming releases. With the top four paths clustered between 24.5% and 14.5%, the market prices in a data-dependent path where September inflation figures and the first meeting outcome will likely determine whether subsequent decisions shift toward additional hikes or extended pauses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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