Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with 17–20°C outcomes clustered at 17–24% implied probabilities, driven by diverging model outputs. The China Meteorological Administration's April 4 update projects a cooler high of 14°C under clear skies following recent 19°C highs on April 4–5, likely due to deepening boundary layer cooling and possible northerly winds advecting chillier air. However, ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hold near 18–20°C, aligning with early-April climatological norms of ~19°C and persistent sunny conditions favoring daytime heating. Resolution hinges on Beijing Capital International Airport observations; daily model refreshes and CMA bulletins through April 5 could tip the balance amid spring's inherent variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on April 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 6?
19°C 23%
20°C or higher 22.8%
17°C 17%
18°C 17%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
8%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
26%
20°C or higher
23%
19°C 23%
20°C or higher 22.8%
17°C 17%
18°C 17%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 апр. 2026 г.
10°C or below
$509 Объем
<1%
11°C
$1,098 Объем
1%
12°C
$1,165 Объем
1%
13°C
$1,855 Объем
1%
14°C
$1,549 Объем
3%
15°C
$464 Объем
5%
16°C
$715 Объем
8%
17°C
$421 Объем
17%
18°C
$500 Объем
17%
19°C
$390 Объем
26%
20°C or higher
$1,043 Объем
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with 17–20°C outcomes clustered at 17–24% implied probabilities, driven by diverging model outputs. The China Meteorological Administration's April 4 update projects a cooler high of 14°C under clear skies following recent 19°C highs on April 4–5, likely due to deepening boundary layer cooling and possible northerly winds advecting chillier air. However, ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hold near 18–20°C, aligning with early-April climatological norms of ~19°C and persistent sunny conditions favoring daytime heating. Resolution hinges on Beijing Capital International Airport observations; daily model refreshes and CMA bulletins through April 5 could tip the balance amid spring's inherent variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Объем
$9,684Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with 17–20°C outcomes clustered at 17–24% implied probabilities, driven by diverging model outputs. The China Meteorological Administration's April 4 update projects a cooler high of 14°C under clear skies following recent 19°C highs on April 4–5, likely due to deepening boundary layer cooling and possible northerly winds advecting chillier air. However, ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hold near 18–20°C, aligning with early-April climatological norms of ~19°C and persistent sunny conditions favoring daytime heating. Resolution hinges on Beijing Capital International Airport observations; daily model refreshes and CMA bulletins through April 5 could tip the balance amid spring's inherent variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$9,684Дата окончания
6 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with 17–20°C outcomes clustered at 17–24% implied probabilities, driven by diverging model outputs. The China Meteorological Administration's April 4 update projects a cooler high of 14°C under clear skies following recent 19°C highs on April 4–5, likely due to deepening boundary layer cooling and possible northerly winds advecting chillier air. However, ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hold near 18–20°C, aligning with early-April climatological norms of ~19°C and persistent sunny conditions favoring daytime heating. Resolution hinges on Beijing Capital International Airport observations; daily model refreshes and CMA bulletins through April 5 could tip the balance amid spring's inherent variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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