Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pin Beijing's March 25 high temperature around 24-26°C, driving trader consensus with nearly equal implied probabilities for those outcomes and a close chase from 29°C+, reflecting model spread amid southerly winds and high-pressure ridging over eastern China. This warmth exceeds the late-March climatological average of 14-16°C, fueled by an anomalous warm air advection pattern persisting from recent days, per China Meteorological Administration data. Differentiation hinges on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island amplification potentially pushing peaks higher, versus transient cloud cover cooling outliers; upcoming 00Z model runs could sharpen odds as resolution nears. Historical March extremes show variability up to 28°C, underscoring forecast uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
24°C 26%
25°C 26%
26°C 26%
29°C or higher 26%
19°C or below
8%
20°C
9%
21°C
15%
22°C
16%
23°C
18%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C or higher
26%
24°C 26%
25°C 26%
26°C 26%
29°C or higher 26%
19°C or below
8%
20°C
9%
21°C
15%
22°C
16%
23°C
18%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pin Beijing's March 25 high temperature around 24-26°C, driving trader consensus with nearly equal implied probabilities for those outcomes and a close chase from 29°C+, reflecting model spread amid southerly winds and high-pressure ridging over eastern China. This warmth exceeds the late-March climatological average of 14-16°C, fueled by an anomalous warm air advection pattern persisting from recent days, per China Meteorological Administration data. Differentiation hinges on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island amplification potentially pushing peaks higher, versus transient cloud cover cooling outliers; upcoming 00Z model runs could sharpen odds as resolution nears. Historical March extremes show variability up to 28°C, underscoring forecast uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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