Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models pinpoint Chengdu's highest temperature on March 28 around 20-22°C, fueling the neck-and-neck market-implied probabilities for these outcomes at 19-24.5%. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central China promotes adiabatic warming and southerly flows, nudging odds toward 21°C (24.5%) and 20°C (23.5%) above historical late-March averages of 18-19°C. Differentiating factors include model divergence on afternoon convective clouds—ECMWF drier for higher peaks (23°C at 19.5%), GFS cloudier (favoring 20°C)—plus minor urban heat island amplification in Chengdu basin. Traders eye China Meteorological Administration's next update for resolution cues amid low volatility in diurnal cycles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
21°C 24%
20°C 23%
23°C 20%
22°C 19%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
11%
16°C
7%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
23%
21°C
24%
22°C
19%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
18%
21°C 24%
20°C 23%
23°C 20%
22°C 19%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
11%
16°C
7%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
23%
21°C
24%
22°C
19%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models pinpoint Chengdu's highest temperature on March 28 around 20-22°C, fueling the neck-and-neck market-implied probabilities for these outcomes at 19-24.5%. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central China promotes adiabatic warming and southerly flows, nudging odds toward 21°C (24.5%) and 20°C (23.5%) above historical late-March averages of 18-19°C. Differentiating factors include model divergence on afternoon convective clouds—ECMWF drier for higher peaks (23°C at 19.5%), GFS cloudier (favoring 20°C)—plus minor urban heat island amplification in Chengdu basin. Traders eye China Meteorological Administration's next update for resolution cues amid low volatility in diurnal cycles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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