Latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Seattle on March 28 project high temperatures clustering in the mid-50s°F, with a mean around 56°F, fueling trader consensus on 56-57°F (32.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner over nearby 54-55°F and 58-59°F bins. Persistent marine stratus from Puget Sound advection—common in late March—likely caps peaks below 60°F by limiting diurnal heating, while subtle ridging aloft could nudge toward 58°F if clouds dissipate early. Divergent GFS runs add uncertainty, but historical baselines (average March high ~55°F) and low wind shear favor cooler outcomes, explaining thin probabilities for 60°F+. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Seattle on March 28?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 28?
56-57°F 33%
54-55°F 29%
58-59°F 27%
52-53°F 15%
51°F or below
3%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
5%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
56-57°F 33%
54-55°F 29%
58-59°F 27%
52-53°F 15%
51°F or below
3%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
5%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Seattle on March 28 project high temperatures clustering in the mid-50s°F, with a mean around 56°F, fueling trader consensus on 56-57°F (32.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner over nearby 54-55°F and 58-59°F bins. Persistent marine stratus from Puget Sound advection—common in late March—likely caps peaks below 60°F by limiting diurnal heating, while subtle ridging aloft could nudge toward 58°F if clouds dissipate early. Divergent GFS runs add uncertainty, but historical baselines (average March high ~55°F) and low wind shear favor cooler outcomes, explaining thin probabilities for 60°F+. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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