Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 4–6°C for Toronto's March 24 high, driven by Environment Canada's latest forecast pinning a daytime peak near 5°C under partly cloudy skies following a weak cold front, with 28% odds on 5°C edging out 25% for 4°C and 23.5% for 6°C+. Ensemble models diverge modestly—GFS runs trend warmer via ridging aloft, implying potential for 6°C+ if southerly flow strengthens, while ECMWF favors cooler 4°C outcomes from lingering trough influence over southern Ontario. Spring volatility amplifies uncertainty, with historical March 24 averages at 5.5°C but standard deviations exceeding 3°C due to frontal passages and Lake Ontario moderation; intraday radar updates will sharpen resolution as urban heat nudges peaks 1–2°C higher than rural benchmarks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Торонто 24 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Торонто 24 марта?
5°C 28%
4°C 25%
6°C или выше 23%
3°C 14%
-4°C или ниже
1%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
1%
0°C
2%
1°C
12%
2°C
12%
3°C
12%
4°C
25%
5°C
28%
6°C или выше
23%
5°C 28%
4°C 25%
6°C или выше 23%
3°C 14%
-4°C или ниже
1%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
1%
0°C
2%
1°C
12%
2°C
12%
3°C
12%
4°C
25%
5°C
28%
6°C или выше
23%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 4–6°C for Toronto's March 24 high, driven by Environment Canada's latest forecast pinning a daytime peak near 5°C under partly cloudy skies following a weak cold front, with 28% odds on 5°C edging out 25% for 4°C and 23.5% for 6°C+. Ensemble models diverge modestly—GFS runs trend warmer via ridging aloft, implying potential for 6°C+ if southerly flow strengthens, while ECMWF favors cooler 4°C outcomes from lingering trough influence over southern Ontario. Spring volatility amplifies uncertainty, with historical March 24 averages at 5.5°C but standard deviations exceeding 3°C due to frontal passages and Lake Ontario moderation; intraday radar updates will sharpen resolution as urban heat nudges peaks 1–2°C higher than rural benchmarks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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