Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 28 reflects tight clustering in global weather model ensembles, with ECMWF and GFS forecasts centering 25-27°C highs at 17% implied probabilities each, amid a spread driven by diurnal sea breeze moderation from the South China Sea and urban heat island amplification. Recent 12Z model runs show slight warming from prior mild days (highs near 23°C), but persistent frontal influences cap extremes, lowering odds for 28°C+ (2%) or sub-20°C (7%). Historical March averages hover at 24°C, with current anomaly neutral per China Meteorological Administration data; traders eye afternoon high-resolution updates for resolution-defining peaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
25°C 17%
26°C 17%
23°C 17%
24°C 17%
19°C or below
3%
20°C
3%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
2%
25°C 17%
26°C 17%
23°C 17%
24°C 17%
19°C or below
3%
20°C
3%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 28 reflects tight clustering in global weather model ensembles, with ECMWF and GFS forecasts centering 25-27°C highs at 17% implied probabilities each, amid a spread driven by diurnal sea breeze moderation from the South China Sea and urban heat island amplification. Recent 12Z model runs show slight warming from prior mild days (highs near 23°C), but persistent frontal influences cap extremes, lowering odds for 28°C+ (2%) or sub-20°C (7%). Historical March averages hover at 24°C, with current anomaly neutral per China Meteorological Administration data; traders eye afternoon high-resolution updates for resolution-defining peaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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