Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 26–29°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 27, driven primarily by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting peaks of 27–29°C amid a warm southerly airflow from the South China Sea. Recent observations show daytime highs already climbing into the mid-20s°C with low precipitation odds (under 20%), favoring diurnal maxima shaped by urban heat island effects and high solar insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon sea breeze strength—stronger onshore winds could cap at 26–27°C via evaporative cooling, while clearer skies boost to 28–29°C—against March climatology averaging 24°C but trending warmer in 2024's transitional season. Upcoming hourly updates from CMA will likely sharpen these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
29°C 23%
28°C 22%
27°C 22%
26°C 20%
21°C or below
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
6%
25°C
12%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C
22%
29°C
23%
30°C
11%
31°C or higher
2%
29°C 23%
28°C 22%
27°C 22%
26°C 20%
21°C or below
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
6%
25°C
12%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C
22%
29°C
23%
30°C
11%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 26–29°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 27, driven primarily by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting peaks of 27–29°C amid a warm southerly airflow from the South China Sea. Recent observations show daytime highs already climbing into the mid-20s°C with low precipitation odds (under 20%), favoring diurnal maxima shaped by urban heat island effects and high solar insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon sea breeze strength—stronger onshore winds could cap at 26–27°C via evaporative cooling, while clearer skies boost to 28–29°C—against March climatology averaging 24°C but trending warmer in 2024's transitional season. Upcoming hourly updates from CMA will likely sharpen these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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