Trader sentiment favors a Chicago high of 40-41°F at 24% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing peaks near 41°F under persistent low-level clouds and weak warm air advection from a stalled frontal boundary. Differentiating this from close rivals like 42-43°F (20%) are subtle model divergences—ECMWF ensembles hint at minor afternoon clearing for slight warm-up, while GFS leans cooler amid deeper cloud decks—against a March climatological average of 45°F. Lower odds for 36-37°F reflect fading chances of stronger cold advection, with uncertainty tied to jet stream ripples and urban heat island effects minimized by overcast skies; watch 12z model updates for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
40-41°F 22%
42-43°F 20%
36-37°F 18%
38-39°F 15%
33°F or below
4%
34-35°F
5%
36-37°F
18%
38-39°F
15%
40-41°F
26%
42-43°F
20%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
4%
50-51°F
5%
52°F or higher
7%
40-41°F 22%
42-43°F 20%
36-37°F 18%
38-39°F 15%
33°F or below
4%
34-35°F
5%
36-37°F
18%
38-39°F
15%
40-41°F
26%
42-43°F
20%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
4%
50-51°F
5%
52°F or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors a Chicago high of 40-41°F at 24% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing peaks near 41°F under persistent low-level clouds and weak warm air advection from a stalled frontal boundary. Differentiating this from close rivals like 42-43°F (20%) are subtle model divergences—ECMWF ensembles hint at minor afternoon clearing for slight warm-up, while GFS leans cooler amid deeper cloud decks—against a March climatological average of 45°F. Lower odds for 36-37°F reflect fading chances of stronger cold advection, with uncertainty tied to jet stream ripples and urban heat island effects minimized by overcast skies; watch 12z model updates for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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