Latest weather models from ECMWF, GFS, and China's Meteorological Administration converge on a Beijing high temperature around 19-22°C on March 28, fueling trader consensus across those outcomes at roughly 17-18% each and explaining the tight clustering. Elevated odds for 26°C or higher (25.5%) stem from potential warm air advection via southerly winds under a high-pressure ridge, a pattern seen in recent spring anomalies that have pushed March records near 30°C historically. Cooler bets below 17°C carry low 1.5% implied probability due to persistent above-normal seasonal trends and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks, though short-range forecast uncertainty—driven by jet stream wobbles—keeps the market fragmented. Traders eye CMA updates for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
26°C or higher 21%
17°C 19%
18°C 19%
19°C 19%
16°C or below
3%
17°C
19%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
19%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
16%
24°C
15%
25°C
13%
26°C or higher
21%
26°C or higher 21%
17°C 19%
18°C 19%
19°C 19%
16°C or below
3%
17°C
19%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
19%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
16%
24°C
15%
25°C
13%
26°C or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest weather models from ECMWF, GFS, and China's Meteorological Administration converge on a Beijing high temperature around 19-22°C on March 28, fueling trader consensus across those outcomes at roughly 17-18% each and explaining the tight clustering. Elevated odds for 26°C or higher (25.5%) stem from potential warm air advection via southerly winds under a high-pressure ridge, a pattern seen in recent spring anomalies that have pushed March records near 30°C historically. Cooler bets below 17°C carry low 1.5% implied probability due to persistent above-normal seasonal trends and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks, though short-range forecast uncertainty—driven by jet stream wobbles—keeps the market fragmented. Traders eye CMA updates for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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