Latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts pinpoint Tokyo's March 28 high temperature in the 16-18°C range, fueling closely matched trader odds of 27.5% for 16°C, 23.5% for 17°C, and 22.5% for 18°C. This consensus stems from persistent southerly winds enabling warm air advection from the East China Sea, where sea surface temperatures run 1-2°C above normal, overriding seasonal norms of 14-15°C. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—thicker stratus could cap 16°C via reduced insolation, while clearer skies allow 18°C peaks during peak diurnal heating—and subtle model divergences on boundary layer mixing. Traders eye JMA's 12-hour update for resolution shifts amid low frontal risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?
16°C 28%
17°C 24%
18°C 23%
19°C 20%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
7%
13°C
15%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
28%
17°C
24%
18°C
23%
19°C
20%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
9%
16°C 28%
17°C 24%
18°C 23%
19°C 20%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
7%
13°C
15%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
28%
17°C
24%
18°C
23%
19°C
20%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts pinpoint Tokyo's March 28 high temperature in the 16-18°C range, fueling closely matched trader odds of 27.5% for 16°C, 23.5% for 17°C, and 22.5% for 18°C. This consensus stems from persistent southerly winds enabling warm air advection from the East China Sea, where sea surface temperatures run 1-2°C above normal, overriding seasonal norms of 14-15°C. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—thicker stratus could cap 16°C via reduced insolation, while clearer skies allow 18°C peaks during peak diurnal heating—and subtle model divergences on boundary layer mixing. Traders eye JMA's 12-hour update for resolution shifts amid low frontal risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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