Trader consensus on Polymarket pins the highest temperature in Tokyo on March 27 at 17°C (31.5% implied probability), propelled by Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts showing mild highs of 16-18°C under a dominant high-pressure system ushering southerly winds. This exceeds the late March historical average of ~13°C, amid a broader warm spell linked to a southward-shifted jet stream. Key variables swaying outcomes include high-pressure persistence—breakdown by Pacific fronts could yield 15°C or cooler (10.6% combined odds)—urban heat effects amplifying central readings, and model ensemble spreads, with ECMWF variants tilting toward 18-19°C (34.5%) versus cooler GFS runs. Uncertainty stems from short-range forecast divergence ahead of the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Токио 27 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Токио 27 марта?
17°C 31%
18°C 20%
16°C 19%
19°C 16%
11°C или ниже
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
19%
17°C
31%
18°C
20%
19°C
16%
20°C
5%
21°C или выше
4%
17°C 31%
18°C 20%
16°C 19%
19°C 16%
11°C или ниже
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
19%
17°C
31%
18°C
20%
19°C
16%
20°C
5%
21°C или выше
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pins the highest temperature in Tokyo on March 27 at 17°C (31.5% implied probability), propelled by Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts showing mild highs of 16-18°C under a dominant high-pressure system ushering southerly winds. This exceeds the late March historical average of ~13°C, amid a broader warm spell linked to a southward-shifted jet stream. Key variables swaying outcomes include high-pressure persistence—breakdown by Pacific fronts could yield 15°C or cooler (10.6% combined odds)—urban heat effects amplifying central readings, and model ensemble spreads, with ECMWF variants tilting toward 18-19°C (34.5%) versus cooler GFS runs. Uncertainty stems from short-range forecast divergence ahead of the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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