Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 31°C high in São Paulo on March 28 at 29% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 29°C (19%) and 30°C (18%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on peaks of 30-31°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses clouds and maximizes solar insolation. Official INMET projections align closely at 30°C, while urban heat island effects in the city amplify rural model readings by 2-3°C. Differentiating the tight leaders, subtle model divergences arise from potential afternoon sea breeze moderation capping at 29-30°C versus low-wind stagnation pushing 31°C, with historical March averages of 27-28°C underscoring the heat anomaly from dry conditions. Traders eye final 12-hour updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
31°C 29%
29°C 19%
30°C 18%
32°C 12%
24°C or below
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
19%
30°C
18%
31°C
29%
32°C
12%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
31°C 29%
29°C 19%
30°C 18%
32°C 12%
24°C or below
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
19%
30°C
18%
31°C
29%
32°C
12%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 31°C high in São Paulo on March 28 at 29% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 29°C (19%) and 30°C (18%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on peaks of 30-31°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses clouds and maximizes solar insolation. Official INMET projections align closely at 30°C, while urban heat island effects in the city amplify rural model readings by 2-3°C. Differentiating the tight leaders, subtle model divergences arise from potential afternoon sea breeze moderation capping at 29-30°C versus low-wind stagnation pushing 31°C, with historical March averages of 27-28°C underscoring the heat anomaly from dry conditions. Traders eye final 12-hour updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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