Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 17°C (37.5% implied probability) for Madrid on March 26, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge over Iberia, with daytime highs clustering around 16-18°C. Recent observations show Madrid's temperatures stabilizing in the mid-teens after a cooler spell earlier this week, aligning with seasonal climatology where late-March averages hover near 17°C amid Atlantic westerlies moderating warmth. Model spread introduces uncertainty, with GFS leaning slightly warmer (18°C) and UKMO cooler (16°C), but no signals for extremes; upcoming 12z model runs could shift odds if cloud cover or northerly winds intensify.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
17°C 37%
16°C 23%
18°C 19.7%
15°C or below 10%
$81,242 Объем
$81,242 Объем
15°C or below
10%
16°C
23%
17°C
37%
18°C
20%
19°C
6%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
17°C 37%
16°C 23%
18°C 19.7%
15°C or below 10%
$81,242 Объем
$81,242 Объем
15°C or below
10%
16°C
23%
17°C
37%
18°C
20%
19°C
6%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 17°C (37.5% implied probability) for Madrid on March 26, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge over Iberia, with daytime highs clustering around 16-18°C. Recent observations show Madrid's temperatures stabilizing in the mid-teens after a cooler spell earlier this week, aligning with seasonal climatology where late-March averages hover near 17°C amid Atlantic westerlies moderating warmth. Model spread introduces uncertainty, with GFS leaning slightly warmer (18°C) and UKMO cooler (16°C), but no signals for extremes; upcoming 12z model runs could shift odds if cloud cover or northerly winds intensify.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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